My first assessment of the report was that it must be a hoax,
because the conclusions are quite pessimistic, certainly much
moreso than one might think based on recent signs of progress.
But tonight the existence of the report and Lord's description
of it were confirmed by The White House "Y2K czar,"
John Koskinen. However, Koskinen downplayed the importance of
the report, saying it used "overly cautious" methodology
and was not secret but had been published on a public Navy
site. If this is true, it was certainly published with no public
fanfare. Here are links to the Lord report and a Washington Post
wire story on the White House confirmation:
A Navy report predicts "probable" or "likely" failures in electrical and water systems for many cities because of the year 2000 technology problem--an assessment more dire than any other made by the government. President Clinton's top Y2K adviser, John Koskinen, called the Navy's conclusions overly cautious, saying they assumed that major utilities would fail unless proved otherwise. The most recent version of the study, updated less than two weeks ago, predicted "probable" or "likely" partial failures in electric utilities that serve nearly 60 of roughly 400 Navy and Marine Corps facilities. The study predicted "likely" partial electrical failures, for example, at facilities in Orlando; Fort Lauderdale, Fla.; Gulfport, Miss.; and nine other small- to mid-size cities. It also predicted "probable" partial water system failures in Dallas; Houston; Nashville; Tulsa; Baton Rouge, La.; Montgomery, Ala.; and 59 other cities. The study forecast likely partial midwinter natural gas failures in Fort Worth; Nashville; Albany, N.Y.; Pensacola, Fla.; Charleston, S.C.; and Columbus, Ohio.
The military report contrasts sharply with predictions from the White House, which weeks ago said in a report that national electrical failures are "highly unlikely." The White House report also said disruptions in water service from the date rollover are "increasingly unlikely." Koskinen said the Navy report's worst-case predictions for failures were marked as "interim" or "partial" assessments. "It's not nearly as interesting as the world coming to an end," said Koskinen. "The way they worked was, until you have information for contingency planning purposes, you ought to assume there was a problem."
The year 2000 problem occurs because some computer programs, especially older ones, might fail when the date changes to 2000. Because the programs were written to recognize only the last two digits of a year, such programs could read the digits "00" as 1900 instead of 2000, potentially causing problems with financial transactions, airline schedules and electrical grids, among other things. The Navy report was first summarized on an Internet site run by Jim Lord, a Y2K author, who said he obtained it "from a confidential source of the highest reliability and integrity." "The military has to work from the worst case, but so do we," Lord said. "It's reprehensible for them to know this and keep it from us."
Koskinen said the Navy was not withholding information from anyone, noting that the continually updated report was available until recently on a Web site maintained by the Defense Department. "The last people in the world the department is going to keep information from is their own people," Koskinen said. The report has been removed from the Web site, but neither Koskinen nor Defense Department officials could say why.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- A Navy report predicts ``probable'' or ``likely'' failures in electrical and water systems for many cities because of the Year 2000 technology problem -- an assessment more dire than any other made by the government.President Clinton's top Y2K adviser, John Koskinen, called the Navy's conclusions overly cautious, saying they assumed that major utilities would fail unless proved otherwise. The most recent version of the study, updated less than two weeks ago, predicted ``probable'' or ``likely'' partial failures in electric utilities that serve nearly 60 of roughly 400 Navy and Marine Corps facilities.
The study predicted ``likely'' partial electrical failures,
for example, at facilities in Orlando, Fla.; Gulfport, Miss.;
Fort
Lauderdale, Fla.; and nine other small- to mid-size cities.It
also predicted ``probable'' partial water system failures in
Dallas; Nashville, Tenn.; Houston; Baton Rouge, La.; Montgomery,
Ala; Tulsa, Okla.; and 59 other cities. The study forecast likely
partial natural gas failures -- in the middle of winter -- in
Albany, N.Y.; Fort Worth, Texas; Pensacola, Fla.; Charleston,
S.C.; Columbus, Ohio; and Nashville. The military report contrasts
sharply with predictions from the White House, which weeks ago
said in a report that national electrical failures are ``highly
unlikely.'' The White House report also said disruptions in water
service from the date rollover are ``increasingly unlikely.''
Koskinen, who vouched for the authenticity of the Navy report,
noted that all its worst-case predictions for failures were marked
as ``interim'' or ``partial'' assessments. ``It's not nearly as
interesting as the world coming to an end,'' said
Koskinen. ``The way they worked was, until you have information
for contingency planning purposes, you ought to assume there was
a problem.'' The Year 2000 problem occurs because some computer
programs, especially older ones, might fail when the date changes
to 2000. Because the programs were written to recognize only the
last two digits of a year, such programs could read the digits
``00'' as 1900 instead of 2000, potentially causing problems with
financial transactions, airline schedules and electrical grids.
The Navy report was first summarized on an Internet site run
by Jim Lord, a Y2K author, who said he obtained it ``from a confidential
source of the highest reliability and integrity.'' ``The military
has to work from the worst case, but so do we,'' Lord
told The Associated Press on Thursday. ``It's reprehensible for
them to know this and keep it from us.'' Koskinen said the Navy
wasn't withholding information from anyone, noting that the continually
updated report was available until recently on a Web site maintained
by the Defense Department. ``The last people in the world the
department is going to keep information from is their own people,''
Koskinen said. ``In fact, the whole purpose of the exercise is
to make sure they can provide appropriate information to servicemen
on their bases and their families. The report was pulled off the
Web site two weeks, Koskinen said. Neither he nor Defense Department
officials offered any reason why. (http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19990819/V000093-081999-idx.html)
ELECTRIC UTILITY FAILURES (http://www.jimlord.to/ElectricityFailures.cfm)
Somebody needs to let the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) know about the Navy study. For their benefit and yours, here is a list of 29 electrical utilities the Navy expects to fail. Read over this list carefully. Some of the Navy facilities are quite small but the electric company that provides their service has a very large customer base...
Electrical Utilities Expected to Fail:
Baldwin EMC, Milton FL
Bessemer Utilities, Bessemer AL
Central Louisiana Electric, Slidell LA
City of Albany GA
City of Key West FL
City Public Service Board, San Antonio TX
Clay Electric Cooperative, Jacksonville FL
Coastal Electric Members, Jacksonville FL
Daviess Martin County Rural Elect, Crane IN
Dayton Power & Light, Dayton OH
El Paso Electric Co., El Paso TX
Escambia River Elec Co., Milton FL, Pensacola FL
Florida Power and Light, Canaveral FL, Ft Lauderdale FL
Florida Power Corp, Clearwater FL
Gulf States Utilities, Orange City FL
JEA, Atlantic Beach FL, Jacksonville FL
Knoxville Utilities Board, Knoxville TN
Middle Georgia Elec, Hawkinsville GA
Mississippi Power and Light, Gulfport MS
Northeast Utilities, New London CT
Orlando Utilities Commission, Orlando FL
Port of Seattle WA
Riviera Utilities, Milton FL
Sierra Electric Cooperative, Truth or Conseq. NM
South Central Power, Columbus OH
Southern Pine Elec Coop, Milton FL
Southwest Arkansas Electric, Lewisville AR
Southwest Louisiana Electric, Broussard LA
Southwestern Public Services, Amarillo TX
Twin County Electric, Hollandale MS
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GAS COMPANY FAILURES (http://www.jimlord.to/GasFailures.cfm)
This is a list of forty gas companies the Navy Department expects
to
fail. Some of the cities mentioned are quite small but the service
area for the utility mentioned has a very large customer base.
Gas Utilities Expected to Fail:
Alabama Gas Corp, Bessemer AL
Atlanta Gas Light Co., Atlanta GA
Baltimore Gas & Electric, Annapolis MD
Boston Gas, Weymouth MA
City of Albany GA
City of Bethlehem PA
City of Bossier City LA
City of Buffalo, NY
City of Great Falls MT
City of Pascagoula MS
City of Pensacola FL
City Public Service Board, San Antonio TX
Columbia Gas of Virginia, Portsmouth VA, Quantico VA
Dayton Power & Light, Dayton OH
Energas Co, Amarillo TX
Interenergy Corp, Charleston SC
Knoxville Utilities Board, Knoxville TN
Louisiana Gas Service, New Orleans LA
Mobile Gas Service Corp, Mobile AL
Mountaineer Gas, Sugar Grove WV
Nashville Gas Service, Nashville TN
New Jersey Natural Gas, Earl NJ
New York State El, New London CT
Niagra Mohawk, Watertown NY
NorAm Energy Management, Pensacola FL
North Carolina Gas, Morehead City NC
Northern Utilities, Portsmouth NH
Okaloosa Gas District, Milton FL
Orlando Utilities Commission, Orlando FL
PECO Energy, Warminster PA
Penn Gas & Water, Avoca PA, Williamsport PA
Philadelphia Gas, Philadelphia PA
Providence Energy, Newport RI
PSE&G, Kearney NJ
Rochester Gas & Electric, Rochester NY
UGI Corp, Mechanicsburg PA
United Cities Gas Co, Columbia SC
Virginia Natural Gas, Newport News VA, Norfolk VA, Yorktown VA
Washington Gas Co., Arlington VA, Bethesda MD, Carderock MD, Lexington
Park MD, Washington DC West Florida Natural Gas, Panama City FL
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IMPACT ON MILITARY READINESS (http://www.jimlord.to/MilitaryImpact.cfm)
These revelations imply a severe effect on military readiness in the United States and at several important locations overseas. In this country, for example the major Marine Corps bases at Quantico, Virginia and Camp LeJeune, North Carolina are expected to experience utility failures. The latter is of special personal concern -- my son and his family are stationed there.
Another essential but not widely appreciated Marine Corps facility is at special risk. The base at Albany, Georgia is the hub of all USMC logistics activities. The inability of this base to provide services would pose a devastating threat to the entire US Marine Corps. Albany is one of three unfortunate cities expected to have utility failures in all four areas -- electricity, water, gas and sewer.
The US Navy expects serious problems as well. The extensive
complex of facilities at their primary east-coast port at Norfolk/Portsmouth,
Virginia is projected to be without water or natural gas. The
Navy Space Command at Dahlgren, Virginia; is in jeopardy. The
Naval Air Stations at North Island, California; Whidby Island,
Washington, Cecil Field, Florida; and Pensacola, Florida are at
risk. The key submarine bases at Kings Bay, Georgia and New London,
Connecticut are on the
list. The latter is another of the three state-side locations
expected to have failures of all four types of utilities.
The facility at Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania is also of special concern. Much of the US Navy's logistics support is conducted at this base which is expected to see both gas and sewer failures.
Overseas, critical bases at Rota, Spain; Sigonella and Naples, Italy; (headquarters of the Mediterranean (6th) Fleet); Bahrain; Guam; Puerto Rico; and Okinawa are impacted. Of the ten facilities listed in the United Kingdom, all (mostly in London) were expected to experience failures of all four utilities.
------------
Secret Government Study Reveals Massive Y2K Problems in American
Cities How many days could New York City survive without water
and sewer services? How long would it take to evacuate eight million
people in the dead of winter? Would thousands die in the process?
Tens of thousands? More? When would the rioting and looting begin?
How many
National Guard troops would it take to control the largest city
in the nation? What unthinkable devastation would be wrought on
the global financial system? How might our enemies seize on the
ensuing panic and confusion?
Are these the crazed speculations of a Y2K alarmist? Not if you know what the US Navy and Marine Corps know. According to a June 1999 report titled, "Master Utility List," they believe "total failure is likely" for New York City's water and sewer systems because of Y2K problems. And they're holding this information back.
The Navy Department assessment is not limited to New York City; it covers all their shore facilities in the world-nearly 500 locations. The results are horrifying. They expect more than 26 million American citizens in 125 cities to be without electricity, water, gas or sewer services next January. Many more would be affected in foreign countries. London, England for example is expected to experience failures of all four types of utilities. Many of the people impacted by these failures would be military personnel and their families.
And the Navy Department isn't telling anyone. Forty-five of the cities named in the survey have population greater than 100,000. Eight of the nation's dozen largest metropolitan areas are af-fected. Here's what the Navy expects:
* Dallas -- no water
* Washington DC and Philadelphia -- no gas
* Baltimore, Houston, New York and Miami -- no water or sewer
* Atlanta-no water or gas
* San Antonio-no water or electricity
* Fort Worth and New Orleans-no water, gas or sewer services
And the Navy Department is saying nothing...
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The information presented below is based on a US Navy/Marine Corps survey dated June 1999. The survey was conducted to determine the risk of utility failures at military facilities worldwide. Only United States information is shown. Each of the three tables below shows a list of cities and the Y2K exposure of the major utilities in each city. The columns labeled E, W, G and S refer to the Electrical, Water, Gas and Sewer utili-ties. An "x" in the column indicates that utility is expected to fail. To view expanded information on each city including the names of specific utilities, visit www.JimLord.to on the web. Three levels of possible failure are indicated in the Navy document. Each table in this summary lists one of these levels. 1) Partial failure is probable. The terms "probable," "likely," "partial," and "total" are Navy terminology and were not clearly defined in the documentation. The terms "likely" and "total" however, represent the worst condition. Cities in bold have populations greater than 100,000. Many of the utilities listed service many more customers than shown here.
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Folks, the Washington spin machine is about to go into "full spin cycle" on these Navy documents. You're going to see the whole thing relentlessly attacked. To get ready for this spin job, prepare yourself with the following facts:
FACT #1: Our government sat on this information and made no effort to make it available to the American people. That's what we mean when we say the information was "kept hidden from the public." It doesn't mean the document had to be stamped "top secret." It just means they HAD the information and they SAT on it. This inaction in inexcusable. In fact, it is negligent.
FACT #2: Just because the documents were buried somewhere on
a Navy web site doesn't mean they were easily reachable by the
public. For example, Y2K Newswire has many, many documents filed
under the main web site but not linked from the main page. Unless
you know the FILE NAME of the document, you can't get to it (even
though we could still claim they are "publicly available").
That's why these Navy documents stayed secret for so long: nobody
knew they were there and the U.S.
government sure didn't go out of its way to tell anybody about
them!
FACT #3: The Y2K deniers first called this a hoax. But when John Koskinen verified the authenticity of the documents, suddenly the Y2K deniers switched arguments. "Okay, they're real now, but they don't mean anything."
FACT #4: Y2K Deniers are now attacking the report by suggesting
-- with no evidence to back this up, by the way -- a worst-case
rating was the "default" and that ratings were only
eased as information became available. Apparently, they think
all utilities should be marked as "compliant" unless
they tell you they're not. In this way, Y2K Deniers are assuming,
once again, that you should wholeheartedly trust every utility
company that issues some kind of rosy-sounding press release (but
refuses to document their Y2K compliance status). To Y2K "pollys,"
no news is good news. NO INFORMATION = FULL
COMPLIANCE, apparently.
FACT #5: The U.S. Navy is now engaged in wholesale damage control. Watch for more news announcements denying everything. They'll say things like, "We expect everything to be fine." This is the REACTION to the news, not the news. Of course they have to control the spin on this. All of a sudden, with this story breaking, people are learning the truth about Y2K.
FACT #6: Y2K Newswire does not know the identity of the Navy person who leaked these documents (thank God), but we do know that "heads will roll!" in the search to find the courageous person who leaked it.
FACT #7: The AP did their homework on this story. Two thumbs up to the Associated Press' Ted Bridis who actually did the research and ran with a story that every other news organization would have called "kooky."
(FDCI Consumer News) Q&A How widespread is the Y2K problem
in the banking industry? ANY PERSON OR ORGANIZATION THAT USES
COMPUTERIZED SYSTEMS OR EQUIPMENT CAN BE AFFECTED
BY IT. ESPECIALLY BANKS!
THEY ARE "EXPECTED" TO BE COMPLIANT BY THE YEAR 2000.
The FDIC and federal and state regulators are monitoring the progress.
If my institution were to fail, what then? The Year 2000 date
change will not affect
your $100,000.00 deposit insurance coverage. Anything from $100,000.00
and less is insured. That is, "if" your bank is covered
by FDIC insurance. Many are not.
[Comment: We bank at a State Credit Union (government agency). In one newsletter they wrote that the parking lot is torn up because they are installing a generator for back up purposes, IN CASE THE LIGHTS GO OUT. The following newsletter reassured us that they have a reinstalled a complete Set of hand records of all depositors, IN CASE THE LIGHTS GO OUT. (Interesting when the power company assured us that the power is going to be on)
(The Jerusalem Post 10.22.99) The cost of preparations for the
Y2K computer bug has passed $1 billion - but it has been money
well spent, according the officials in the Prime Minister's Office
who are coordinating the national effort to make
computer system suitable to the new millennium. Prime Minister's
Office Director-General Yossi Kucik, said Israel has been rated
by Gartner Group consultants as seventh among all the nations
in general preparedness for the bug. In the top 12 nations
(which include the US, England, Ireland, Holland, Denmark, Canada
and Bermuda), he said the risk of a critical failure is only 15%.
This compares to a 33% risk in countries such as Finland, France,
Hungry, Italy and Taiwan, and a 66% risk in China, Egypt, Indonesia,
Russia, Nepal, Morocco and Zaire.